December 29, 2007
2007: A Global Assessment of
the Confrontation
By
Walid Phares
The conflict we call the War on Terror still
continues at the end of 2007 and all indications
are that its battlefields are expected to spread
further, and escalate, in the upcoming year.
The following is a global assessment of the
confrontation that has taken place since 2001,
though the systematic war waged by the Jihadi
forces against democracies and the free world
began at least a decade before 9/11. This
evaluation isn't comprehensive or definitive,
but a collection of observations related to
major benchmarks, directions and projections.
Global cohesion lacking
The main powers and allies involved in the War
on Terror still lack global cohesion. While
the US integrates its efforts in the ongoing
wars in Afghanistan and Iraq with its efforts
globally to defeat al Qaeda and contain
nuclear proliferation of rogue regimes like
Iran, other powers and blocs of countries have
different outlooks and plans. While Britain
and other U.S partners in Europe espouse
common views on the global scale, France,
Germany, Spain and Italy agree on the Afghan
theater but still are uninvolved in the Iraqi
theater. All Atlantic partners, however,
pursue al Qaeda and consider it -- along with
other Salafi networks -- as the principal
threat. Also, most Western partners perceive
the Iranian threat as serious, although differ
in the ways in which to respond.
Non-Western powers fighting Jihadist forces do
not necessarily unite in the international
arena against a common foe. India is targeted
by Islamists but doesn't associate with the
US-led efforts in the Middle East. Russia is
also at war with Jihadi terror, yet it
distances itself from the Afghan theater,
opposes the US in Iraq, and worse, backs the
two terror-spreading regimes in Tehran and
Damascus.
In
the region, Western-inclined governments claim
they fight "terrorism" but only the terrorists
who threaten their own regimes, not the
worldwide Jihadi threat. The current Turkish
government fights the terrorist-coined PKK,
but isn't concerned with the growth of
Wahhabism and Khomeinism in the region. Saudi
Arabia dismantles al Qaeda cells inside the
Kingdom but still spreads fundamentalism
worldwide. Qatar hosts the largest US base in
the region, and at the same time funds the
most notorious indoctrination programs on al
Jazeera. In short, there are several "wars" on
terror worldwide. Surely America is leading
the widest campaign, but efforts around the
globe are still dispersed, uncoordinated, and
in many cases, contradictive.
Afghanistan
Many critics asserted in 2007 that the Taliban
were returning and that NATO wasn't providing
full stability yet. In my assessment, this is
a long war: the neo-Taliban weren't able to
achieve full enclave control anywhere in the
country. The government of Mr. Karzai should
take advantage of international backing to
achieve a breakthrough in the counter-ideology
campaign, because the US-led mission will be
successful as long as it provides space and
time for Kabul to win the war of ideas.
Efforts in 2008 must focus on coordination
with Pakistan against the Jihadists, and on
civil society political gains.
Pakistan
Finally, General Musharaf's government widened
its military offensives during 2007 in the
neo-Taliban zones, prompting terror counter
strikes in various cities and a major Jihadi
uprising in Islamabad. The escalation opened a
window among political opposition to make
gains against Musharaf. By the year's end,
Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif came back to
the country and were leading the opposition in
the next elections. The assassination of
Bhutto was a setback to the political process.
Musharraf and the secular forces need to
coalesce around a platform of national
security and democracy and move forward with
elections and anti-Terror campaign in 2008.
But for international security, the priority
is to preserve Pakistan's nuclear assets and
keep the Jihadists at bay. Will secular
opposition and the President understand this
higher national priority in 2008?
Somalia
An
important, but still temporary, victory was
scored in Somalia against the Islamist
Mahakem, the Taliban of the Horn of
Africa, and it took Western support to the
Somali Government and an Ethiopian
intervention to accomplish it. Denying a state
sanctuary to al Qaeda in Africa is a plus, but
the future will depend on Bin Laden's advances
or defeats across the African continent in
2008.
Sudan
The main international concern in Africa is
undoubtedly toward Darfur. The Sudanese regime
was able in 2007 to stall Western intervention
for one whole year, allowing the Janjaweed
to strengthen and perform additional
atrocities. Playing the Arab League and the
African Union roles to delay a UN action,
Khartoum is battling African resistance
movements on two fronts: Darfur, but also the
south. The regime, similar to other Jihadi
powers in the region, is gaining time to
crumble its previous commitments and unleash
counter campaigns. The international campaign
in Darfur must begin in 2008, otherwise the
Jihadi counter offensive in Africa will strike
deep in Chad and across the Saharan countries
by early 2009.
North Africa
Moroccan, Algerian and Tunisian counter
terrorism efforts increased in 2007 but so did
Terror attacks by al Qaeda in the Maghreb. The
North African battlefield is now wide open
after the combat Salafists have joined Bin
Laden officially. U.S and European support
need to target the Sahara region as a whole
from Mauritania to Chad in 2008 before it
slips to the Jihadi forces. If al Qaeda
entrenches itself in the area, West Africa
will be threatened by 2009.
Iraq
The surge by US forces and allies has worked
and al Qaeda plans have been impacted and
delayed in 2007. The goals of the combined
enemies of Iraqi democracy (al Qaeda and the
Syrian and Iranian regimes) were to crumble
the Coalition's role and to interdict the rise
of a Government in the country. US military
action eliminated al Qaeda's attempts to
create enclaves. The rise of Sunni Tribes
against the Terror groups in the center is a
major development in the Iraq Theater.
Furthermore, the rise of Shia tribes in the
south against Iranian influence and in
solidarity with the central Sunni tribes is
the beginning of a strategic shift in the
country. However the persistence of Damascus
and Tehran in supporting Terror forces can
eventually reverse these advances. Hence,
during 2008, it is important for the US-led
Coalition to counter the moves by the Iranian
and Syrian regimes in Iraq and set up a
national Iraqi capacity to deter the Pasdaran
activities.
Iran
On
the negative side, confusing messages issued
by US Congressional leaders regarding a
so-called "dialogue" with the Iranian regime
during 2007 weakened the US containment
strategy and harmed efforts by the Iranian
opposition. Furthermore the American NIE
findings during the Fall of this year gave
Tehran's Mullahs additional room to maneuver.
On the positive side, the sanctions issued by
the US president against the Pasdaran and the
Quds force reverberated throughout the
country, encouraging an escalation by the
opposition inside the country. President
Sarkozy's strong attitude reinforced the
Western coalition against nuclear weapons
sought by the Khomeinists. However if by end
of 2008, no further containment is achieved,
by 2009, the (Iranian-Syrian) "axis" will be
achieving a regional offensive. It is
advisable that significant efforts to support
Iran's civil society uprising during 2008.
Syria
During 2007 the Syrian regime continued to
back Terror activities in Iraq, Lebanon and in
the Palestinian territories without
significant responses from the international
community. In Lebanon, the Assad regime was
successful in weakening the Government and the
Cedars revolution to a tipping point. In Gaza,
it backed Hamas coup along with Iran. And it
was able to dodge the Hariri international
tribunal for one more year. Furthermore
Damascus continued to strengthen its missile
capabilities and programs of weapons of mass
destruction. As for Iran, if no serious
containment strategy is applied to the Assad
regime as of 2008, by the following year a
domino effect would be taking place in the
region against the rise of democracies with
Syria playing a significant role. During the
present year both US Congress political
messaging towards "dialogue" and the Russian
backing encouraged Assad to pursue his
policies and created harsher conditions for
the Syrian opposition.
Lebanon
The year 2007 witnessed a series of tragedies
with terror assassinations directed against
legislators from the majority in Parliament
and a senior general in the Lebanese Army.
Hezbollah and its allies were successful in
intimidating the Government and the Cedars
Revolution with violence and threats. The
United States public position stayed the
course in support to the democracy movement
while French initiatives further confused the
Lebanese. In 2008 the fate of Lebanon will be
centered on the election of a new President.
The US, the European Union and their allies in
the region have about 9 months to back free
Lebanon, otherwise the following year could
witness the fall of the country back into the
hands of the "axis."
Turkey
The inevitable dragging of the Turkish Army in
incursions against the PKK in northern Iraq
during 2007 indirectly serves the interests of
the Syro-Iranian "axis." It also deflects the
attention from the ideological change
performed by the Islamist Government in
Ankara.
Saudi Arabia
During 2007, the Saudi Kingdom continued its
efforts against the al Qaeda cells inside the
country. It developed additional tactics to
wage theological pressures on the organization.
But at the same time, Saudi funds were still
made available to fundamentalists around the
world.
Russia
Although Russia continues
to be a main target to Wahhabi and
Jihadist terror and incitement, ironically,
the Putin government during 2007 staged
three moves to the advantage of terror
regimes: opposing the US missile defense
system in Europe, meant to protect Europe
from the Khomeinist threat; shielding
Tehran from Wsetern ressures; and
protecting the Assad regime. In 2008, the
current direction taken by the Kremlin
should be addressed seriously by the US
and Europe through a historic and open
dialogue on the future of Terrorism.
Russia's current policies, if not
corrected, can backfire against its own
national security in view of the Jihadist
rising activities in Chechnya and the
Caucasus as well as in central Asia.
India
India continued to be targeted by the
Jihadists in 2007. As a nuclear power, and the
largest democracy in the world, this country
should be further included in the
international coalition against Terror and
granted a more important role in south Asia in
2008.
China
During 2007, Chinese technology and weapons
continued to flow to Terrorism-supporting
regimes including Sudan, Iran and Syria. As
for Russia, China's own security within its
own borders can be affected by a growing
Jihadi network in its north Western provinces.
France
The election of Nicholas Sarkozy in 2007 is a
positive development as the new President
intends to increase French participation in
the War against Terrorism. Continuous
incitements by Jihadists networks against
France also escalated projecting forthcoming
confrontations in France.
Europe and the West
Developments and arrests made in Great
Britain, Spain, Italy, Germany, Denmark,
Sweden, the Netherlands and Belgium in 2007
all indicate that Jihadi warfare in Western
Europe is to be expected in 2008 and beyond.
Similar trends were detected in Australia and
Canada during the same year
The United States
During 2007 several arrests and dismantling of
cells within the United States demonstrated
the spread of the Jihadi networks at various
levels and in different areas. A Projection of
these developments and of the type of
infiltrations already in place in this country
shows that the map of the Jihadi web is much
wider and deeper than anticipated, even by
Government agencies and estimates. The diverse
nature of the Jihadi activities in America
lead me to believe that the next waves will be
more sophisticated and better inserted in the
institutions and society. The 2007 arrests and
reports show that the Jihadists had interest
in penetrating the US defense system.
However another type of threat has also
appeared: the Jihadi ideological penetration
of various spheres of education and
decision-making, including at the strategic
level. Both Wahabi and Khomeinist funding and
influence have been spotted in 2007. The US
Congress and the Administration should be
spending time and efforts during 2008 to
develop a national consensus on the definition
of the threat doctrine, Jihadism. Short of
achieving a minimal understanding of the
Terror ideology, 2009 and beyond will witness
a faster mutation of the Jihadi threat inside
the country.
Dr Walid Phares is the Director of
the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation
for the Defense of Democracies and a Visiting
Scholar at the European Foundation for
Democracy. He is the author of
Future Jihad and TheWar
of Ideas.
|
